Bitcoin appears on track to surpass $40,000 in December with high probability, shaking off recent turbulence sparked by crypto exchange Binance's legal troubles, according to digital asset financial services firm Matrixport.

In a market outlook report, digital asset financial service provider Matrixport predicts Bitcoin will rally back above $38,000 by end of November with 80% likelihood. It expects with 90% probability that Bitcoin then breaches $40,000 next month. The positive forecast comes even after Bitcoin temporarily sank below $36,000 this week amid concerns over Binance's record $4 billion sanctions violation settlement with U.S. authorities.

"Despite the negative Binance news, initially perceived as a risk-off event, Bitcoin has only experienced a temporary correction," the report states.

Matrixport points to a notable $5 billion expansion in Tether's stablecoin market cap since September. It says the growth signals rising institutional appetite to allocate cash into cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Surging blockchain fees also underline heightened network usage and demand.

While November appears to be a consolidation month for Bitcoin with more modest +6% average historical gains, Matrixport notes this month is already outpacing that at +8.5% returns in line with typical seasonality tailwinds.

The firm remains strongly bullish on Bitcoin and the crypto market's macro outlook. It expects falling bond yields into 2024 will drive increased investment into digital asset markets and correlated technology stocks.